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THE PUNDIT: ANDREW HAWKINS                                            Andrew Hawkins
LEADING POLITICAL POLLSTER                                            Chairman
                                                                      T: 020 7871 8660
The EU Referendum threatens to overshadow                             E: a ndrew.hawkins
not only the London Mayoral race but every
election across the UK, so London needs                                  @comres.co.uk
two big, rumbustious personalities to bring
the whole campaign to life. Sadly, we only
have Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan. On the
electoral evidence alone, Labour’s candidate
should have it in the bag: the Party secured
almost 300,000 additional votes in London at
the 2015 General Election – far more than the
Conservatives. Sadiq has also maintained a
consistent lead in recent polls, with as much
as a 10-point advantage in the ComRes polling
series for ITV London and LBC.

But Labour’s London success masks a serious underlying problem:
the loss of support among the white working class. While London’s
demographics makes this less of an issue than elsewhere in the
country, BME voters are consistently less likely to turn out on the day.
Notwithstanding their ten-point lead, Labour cannot take certain victory
for granted.

Past mayoral elections have made much of the inner/outer London
doughnut. Demographic movement makes this less relevant nowadays,
but for the record Sadiq beats Zac in inner London by a ratio of two to
one, while the candidates are neck and neck in the outer ring.

2012 ELECTION RESULTS

MAYORAL ELECTION 2012

                FIRST PREFERENCE   BORIS JOHNSON                      CONS
                SECOND PREFERENCE  KEN LIVINGSTONE                    LAB
                                   JENNY JONES                        GREEN
                                   BRIAN PADDICK                      LIB DEM
                                   SIOBHAN BENITA                     IND
                                   LAWRENCE WEBB                      UKIP
                                   CARLOS CORTIGLIA                   BNP

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

CONSTITUENCY ELECTIONS 2012                                           GREENWICH & LEWISHAM
                                                                      HAVERING & REDBRIDGE
                                                 BARNET & CAMDEN      LAMBETH & SOUTHWARK
                                                 BEXLEY & BROMLEY     MERTON & WANDSWORTH
                                                 BRENT & HARROW       NORTH EAST
                                                 CITY & EAST          SOUTH WEST
                                                 CROYDON & SUTTON     WEST CENTRAL
                                                 EALING & HILLINGDON
                                                 ENFIELD & HARINGEY

LIST ELECTIONS 2012

NICKY GAVRON    ANDREW BOFF        CAROLINE PIDGEON                   JENNY JONES
MURAD QURESHI   GARETH BACON       STEPHEN KNIGHT                     DARREN JOHNSON
FIONA TWYCROSS  VICTORIA BORWICK
TOM COPLEY

FIFTH MAYORAL AND GLA MEETING 2016 THURSDAY, MAY 5TH                                        3
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